...against fictions and other tall tales
Showing posts with label Adair Turner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Adair Turner. Show all posts

Saturday, 19 October 2013

Which unconventional monetary policies hold most promise?

Kudos to Biagio Bossone, Chairman of the Group of Lecce and former central banker (and circuit theorist par excellence), for his first-rate analysis (see here: part 1 and part 2) of the different types of unconventional monetary policy measures that have been implemented and proposed in the last few years!

Bossone's piece does a fantastic job of presenting the different policy proposals into six distinct categories based on their implied transmission channel and the degree of cooperation between the fiscal and monetary authorities that is required in order to implement the proposed measures.

The main take-away from the analysis is that Bossone finds the proposals that aim to boost aggregate demand via fiscal actions are the most promising. According to Bossone, the benefits of fiscal measures (with or without actions by the monetary authority) are that their effect is more direct than policy measures such as quantitative easing (which works indirectly via its impact on interest rates) or forward guidance (which works indirectly via its effect on the public's expectations on future interest rates).

In the concluding paragraph, Bossone writes,
...this result vindicates the proposed measures to expand the money supply via overt monetary financing or neo-chartalism, which aims to inject new money independently of central banks' interest-rate policies, especially if these are limited by the zero lower bound.
Reference

Bossone, B., Unconventional monetary policies revisited, Part 1 and Part 2, Vox, October 2013

Saturday, 23 February 2013

Helicopter money: an operational view

Much has been written about Adair's Turner suggestion that central banks should consider financing public spending but I thought this short exchange between Adair Turner and economist Mario Seccareccia at an INET conference in 2011 is worth pointing out.

Here's Adair Turner's question:
[About Japan]...why wouldn't it been better still to do what Friedman said was the correct policy post facto in the 1930s, which is "helicopter money". Why wouldn't a better policy had been for the Japanese government to simply run fully, overtly, monetized deficits so that the last [inaudible] percent of GDP was not in the form of a debt contract held by the Japanese private sector but was in the form of absolute, categoric fiat money? (at 2:30 here)
This is Mario Seccareccia's response:
[About the] issue which had been raised about fiscal policy and the "helicopter drop" [vs conventional deficit spending]. That's a false dichotomy. I mean, deficit spending is -- in a sense -- monetization all the time. [Bond issuance is] how the central bank then behaves to clear or sterilize -- so to speak -- those reserves in the system in order to meet its interest rate policy. Period. There is no such thing as a "helicopter" doing this. It's always done through deficit spending fundamentally, I would argue. (at 9:00 here)
The point to remember when thinking about a central bank's ability to inject exogenous increases in reserve balances is that in a monetary regime such as Japan (and the UK for that matter) where the central bank targets an interest rate and the remuneration rate on reserves balances isn't set at the same level as its target interest rate, the central bank can't conduct offensive open market operations aimed at increasing the amount of reserve balances without simultaneously frustrating its goal of keeping its benchmark interest rate on target. Under such a regime the central bank's ability to control money growth is essentially limited to conducting defensive open market operations aimed at keeping its interest rate on target.

UPDATE: A very detailed look at the "helicopter drop" issue is found in Scott Fullwiler's article "Helicopter drops are fiscal operations" (2010). For a general discussion on offensive vs defensive open market operations, see Lombra, Herendeen and Torto, Money and the Financial System, page 425, 1980.