Inequality in the recent business cycle

This is a good speech by Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin of the Federal Reserve (also available in audio here). It was given during the Hyman Minsky Conference held at the Levy Institute earlier this week.

The speech focuses on the obstacles to recovery associated with household debt deleveraging and the decline in wealth for low-income households since the financial crisis. That low- and middle-income households held a disproportionate share of wealth in housing prior to the crisis meant they were highly exposed by the decline in house prices.

Raskin notes:

...[W]hile total household net worth fell 15 percent in real terms between 2007 and 2010, median net worth fell almost 40 percent. This difference reflects the amplified effect that housing had on wealth changes in the middle of the wealth distribution. The unexpected drop in house prices on its own reduced both households' wealth and their access to credit, likely leading them to pull back their spending. In particular, underwater borrowers and heavily indebted households were left with little collateral, which limited their access to additional credit and their ability to refinance at lower interest rates. Indeed, some studies have shown that spending has declined more for indebted households

Although later in the speech Governor Raskin discusses the Fed's strategy to address these issues (mainly by the use of unconventional monetary policies aimed at lowering long-term interest and mortgage rates), there is unfortunately no mention of the possible role of the Fed's current quantitative easing (QE) strategy in amplifying wealth inequality via the use of unconventional policies.

Since the start of the Fed's asset purchases programs (i.e., QE), we have seen stock indexes recover their losses while the decline in house prices has stayed flat (see charts below - Note: Increases in the monetary base is a good indicator of the magnitude of QE). In a context where the Fed is also hoping QE to sustain economic activity through the "wealth effect" channel (whereby a rise in asset prices causes investors to feel more secure about their wealth and, consequently, spend more), it's only normal to question whether current strategy is contributing (albeit unintentionally) to the wealth gap.

Source: Federal Reserve

Source: Federal Reserve

Steve Keen on interest and capitalism's main dilemma

A few fine words from Steve Keen:

Interviewer: On a broader topic, is interest a kind of rent in the classical sense? Is it income without a cost of production?  

Steve Keen: Absolutely. This is why...I see the main dilemma in capitalism as being the conflict between financial capital and industrial capital. Industrial capital is ultimately productive. And if you look at workers and capitalists, they both ultimately benefit out of the technological developments over time and demands over wages. If unemployment is not gigantic, they benefit out of the improvements in current technology and out of productivity at the time as well. The real albatross around the neck of capitalism is financial capital [inaudible] when you let it get beyond the level necessary to simply finance working capital in some new investment. And it’s what happens every time capitalists take over...

...The thing I think we’re both in agreement on is we have to stop people, and particularly social classes, becoming dependent upon unearned income. Ultimately the only way to get a functioning capitalist society—or a society in general—is to have one where the source of income is earned, not unearned. And when you look at land speculation, or you look at any other form of speculation, people are trying to get income without earning it. That’s the real dilemma in capitalism. And if we direct ourselves toward that particular principle then we’re both on the same side. (Renegade Economists, April 21, 2010, at 13:30)

There's lots of good insight here. A fine glimpse of "Keensian" economics.  And I totally agree with the general point of the last sentence: "...then we're both on the same side". There's plenty of commonalities out there. We just need to focus on these.

PS: I'm entering a busy period at work. Posting will be limited and mainly consist of short thoughts on and snippets from economists I find interesting.